时间：9月25日16:00

地点：1512会议室

报告题目：

On forecasting solar eruptive events - Leap forward in predicting the sources of Space Weather

报告人：

Robert von Erdelyi, Solar Physics & Space Plasma Research Centre (SP2RC), Sheffield University, robertus@sheffield.ac.uk

报告人简介：

Prof. Robert von Erdelyi’s research interests lie in the general field of solar and space plasma-astrophysics. The aim of his research is to address some of the fundamental questions in e.g. plasma heating, jet formation, drivers of Space Weather, etc. through theoretical (both numerical and exact analytical methods) and observational studies (joint ground-based and satellite missions). He pays particular attention to studying the solar influence on Space Weather and developing solar magneto-seismology (SMS). He became Head of the Solar Physics & Space Plasma Research Centre (SP2RC), Sheffield University in 2004. He published over 250 papers (incl. 6x Nature Inc, 3x Science), with over 6000 citations and H-factor 41. For more information, please refer to: http://www.robertus.staff.shef.ac.uk/.

报告摘要：

With the purpose to introduce one of the most accurate and reliable Space Weather forecasting tool, we present new insights into the pre-flare and Coronal Mass Ejection behaviour and the evolution of the Active Regions (ARs). After a brief account of the necessary background we will embark on showing the realist of analysing joint space-borne and ground-based data (e.g. SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data (SDD) SDO/HMI - Debrecen Data (HMIDD) sunspot catalogues). Next, we embark on our method developed recently and introduce the so-called weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic field (WG_M), a market-leading method. WG_M is defined between opposite polarity spot-groups that are present in the vicinity of the polarity inversion line(s) of ARs. WG_M provides important diagnostic information (i) about to accurately predict the flare onset time, (ii) on the flare intensity that is used to carry out (iii) CME risk assessment from C- to the X-class flares. We will also discuss additional two auxiliary parameters that guide us about which AR should be given attention for pre-flare and CME monitoring and further analysis. Finally, we address how local (sub)surface dynamics may be linked to the global evolution of the solar cycle and how this link may be exploited for improving space weather forecasting.